Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.